西安交通大学基础科学研究中心-cloudfrontnet.PPT

Why do wild animals without any prevention have hardly become extinct by attacks of various infectious diseases? Why do domestic animals more easily die by attacks of infectious diseases? Why did Influenza during 1918-1919 killed nearly 50 million people, and no similar cases appear now day? * Because million years biological evolutions may make wild animal populations’ basic reproduction number R0 1 or transmission threshold R0 less than one or slightly larger than one. Because dense living circumstances and no natural living ways may make domestic animal populations have larger k and β than wild animals Because many people lived in that period had basic influenza virus reproductive number R0s which were larger than one. However, most modern peoples various basic virus reproductive R0s are less than one because much better living conditions and/or biological evolution. So that over 5 hundred human infected viruses have only infected small part of human beings. When an epidemic disease is coming, decreasing contact opportunities (reducing k) and preventing old people and children (they may have large β’s) may be the most effective approaches to against epidemics. Consequently, human beings do not need to fear spreadings of new epidemics. 该假说可以对HBV感染、禽流感、传染性非典型肺炎(SARS)感染等流行病中出现的无明显传染源的病毒感染现象作出解释： (1) 受病毒感染后无症状的人群造了对易感人群的隐性感染. 野生动物群体在毫无防护的情况下很少被病毒灭绝，是因为经过千百万年的生物进化使得各类群体中大部分成员对各类病毒的基本病毒复制数R0均小于1. (2) 家养动物群体比野动物群体更容易遭受病毒的侵袭是人为的饲养环境破坏了动物自身的生长规律. (3) 对于人类情况也是类似的. 我们应该尽力地使人类的生存、生活和工作环境符合人类生存的自然规律，就可做到百毒不侵、延年益寿， (4) 新病毒对人类的威胁也是有限的. Weiland 关于黑猩猩乙肝病毒急性感染的实验报道，可看成是对我们假说的 有力支持. * Our research suggest: (1) Current anti-HBV/HIV infection treatments should be very efficient if no virus mutation or/and drug resistance appear. (2) Suddenly stopping anti-virus therapy may be dangerous for some patients. (3) Medicines which are able to activate efficiently patients’ specific virus immune functions are needed. (4) The tests for patients’ specif