Behavior Population Dynamics University at Albany SUNY 人口动力行为在奥尔巴尼州立大学.ppt

Behavior ? Population Dynamics Behavior Directly Governs Individual Demographic Performance Indirectly Effects Population Dynamics Population Growth Implies Chance of Extinction Here, Take Behavior = Social Organization Extinction Population extinction process Four general causes of extinction 1. Environmental stochasticity 2. Demographic stochasticity 3. Abiotic catastrophes 4. Lack genetic variation Extinction Environmental stochasticity Random, temporal variation: exogenous factor (s) Individuals’ experience same birth, death rates Temporal fluctuations, Between-generation scale Good, Bad Years = Generations: food abundance Small population bad year ? Extinction Extinction Demographic stochasticity Random variation among individuals, Within-generation scale Number offspring, survival Individuals’ birth and death rates independent, hence can differ Important small populations: chance extinction Extinction Demographic stochasticity Fix time; Extinction Pr declines with Initial population ize Fix Pop size; Extinction Pr increases with time MTE = (Extinction Pr)-1 Extinction Abiotic (Physical) Catastrophes Large, sudden density reduction Environmental, anthropogenic Climate change Time scale relative to generation time Extinction Genetic Lack variation, population fails to adapt Rarest, but [again] global climate change Behavior ? Population Dynamics Vucetich et al. 1997. Effects of social structure and prey dynamics on extinction risk in gray wolves. Conservation Biology 11:957. 1. Wolves: social behavior - group, pack 1 litter/year, dominant female amplify demographic stochasticity 2. Prey availability: fluctuate, source of environmental stochasticity Behavior ? Population Dynamics Gray wolf (Canis lupus) Isle Royale, MI; island in Lake Superior National Park, 500 mi2 Wolves feed on moose Abundance of old moose ( 9 yrs) key Behavior ? Population Dynamics Objective: Simulate wolf population dynam