Chance or Chaos Quantifying nonlinearity nd chaoticity in 机会或混沌非线性量化和混沌中.ppt

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Chance or Chaos Quantifying nonlinearity nd chaoticity in 机会或混沌非线性量化和混沌中.ppt

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Chance or Chaos Quantifying nonlinearity nd chaoticity in 机会或混沌非线性量化和混沌中

Chance or Chaos?Quantifying nonlinearity and chaoticity in observed geophysical timeseries Gabriele Curci Università degli Studi dell’Aquila (ITALY) http://www.aquila.infn.it/people/Gabriele.Curci.html/ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 13-14 January 2005 Summary The Climate System Chaos useful in practice Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in observed timeseries Applications: very first results Conclusions and future developments Earth’s Climate System Understanding the Climate System Two “opposite” needs: Increase the number of observations (scalar timeseries) Condense the knowledge in a theory (e.g. to allow predictions) Observation of the Climate System Chaos and Climate An “irregular” behavior is natural in system with a large number of degrees of freedom (stochasticity) Deterministic chaos could explain irregular dynamics also with a few degrees of freedom Detecting low-dimensional chaos in a given phenomenon is very useful for modelling and near-term predictability DETECTING CHAOSPractical difficulties with observed timeseries We observe just one or a few variables of the system Noise: if very high, it masks the chaotic signal Finite length and missing data The common tools for detecting chaos (Lyapunov exp, correlation dimension) are uneffective DETECTING CHAOSNull hypotheses and surrogate data Before attempting to use complicated timeseries analysis tools one should try to establish the presence of nonlinearity First, a null hypothesis for the underlying process is formulated (e.g. Gaussian linear) Second, we build surrogate data that accurately represent the null hypothesis Third, we try to find a system parameter that is capable to detect a meaningful deviation of the data from the null hypothesis (surrogates) DETECTING CHAOSNull hypotheses we can test against and corresponding surrogates Independence: random draws from a fixed probability distribution. Random shuffling of the data Filter with an AR linear model and shuffle the residuals G