The Futur of Neutrino Physics中微子物理的未来.pptVIP

DoE Review June 26, 2000 Concluding Talk: Physics Gary Feldman Harvard University PHYSTAT 05 University of Oxford 15 September, 2005 Topics I will restrict my comments to two topics, both of which I am interested in and both of which received some attention at this meeting: Event classification Nuisance parameters Event Classification The problem: Given a measurement of an event X = (x1,x2,…xn), find the function F(X) which returns 1 if the event is signal (s) and 0 if the event is background (b) to optimize a figure of merit, say signal.  Theoretical Solution In principle the solution is straightforward: Use a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the likelihood ratio Ls(X)/Lb(X) and derive F(X) from it. By the Neyman-Pearson Theorem, this is the optimum solution. Unfortunately, this does not work due to the “curse of dimensionality.” In a high-dimension space, even the largest data set is sparse with the distance between neighboring events comparable to the radius of the space. Practical Solutions Thus, we are forced to substitute cleverness for brute force. In recent years, physicists have come to learn that computers may be cleverer than they are. They have turned to machine learning: One gives the computer samples of signal and background events and lets the computer figure out what F(X) is. Artificial Neural Networks Originally most of this effort was in artificial neural networks (ANN). Although used successfully in many experiments, ANNs tend to be finicky and often require real cleverness from their creators. At this conference, there was an advance in ANNs reported by Harrison Prosper. The technique is to average over a collection of networks. Each network is constructed by sampling the weight probability density constructed from the training sample. Trees and Rules In the past couple of years, interest has started to shift to other techniques, such as decision trees, at least partially sparked by Jerry Friedman’s talk