李开复对话式界面.pptVIP

Conversational Computers:Always 10 Years Away? Kai-Fu Lee Corporate Vice President Microsoft Corporation Why Conversational Interface? Speech : “invented” for interaction “[Speech language are] a biological adaptation to communicate information… One of nature’s engineering marvels” – Steven Pinker “Vision evolved from the need to survive; speech evolved from the need to communicate” – Michael Dertouzos. Benefits of “Conversational Interface” “To me, speech recognition will be a transforming capability … when you can speak to your computer and it will understand what youre saying in context.” – Gordon Moore “Speech and natural language understanding are the key technologies that will have the most impact in the next 15 years.” – Bill Gates Future UI vision assume conversational UI Apple’s “Knowledge Navigator”. Microsoft’s “information at your fingertips”. Science fiction movies assume conversational UI But “Always” 10 Years Away 1950 Jerome Weisner predicted by 1960 machine translation may be possible 1957 Herbert Simon predicted by 1967 machine will match human performance in many areas 1969 US Expert Panel predicted “voice I/O will be in common use by 1978” 1993 I predicted by 2003 every PC will ship with speech recognition 1998 Gartner Group predicted PC UI will assume voice input by 2003 Decomposing the Prediction Speech recognition Text to speech Natural language understanding Why have we been a constant 10 years away? My 3-year 10-year predictions Talk Outline Speech recognition Text to speech Natural language understanding Why have we been a constant 10 years away? My 3-year 10-year predictions Fundamental Equation of Speech Recognition X is the acoustic waveform W is the word string A speech recognizer finds W such thatW = argmax p(W | X ) = argmax p(X | W ) p(W ) p(X | W ) is the acoustic model p(W ) is the language model Statistical Modeling Improving the acoustic model – p(X | W ) Statistical Approach Build a detailed statistical model for ea