Section 101 Point and Interval Estimation101节点估计和区间估计.pptVIP

Another Spectacular Power Point Presentation Point Estimates Definition: A single number that is based on sample data, and represents a reasonable value of the characteristic of interest. Things Like: x s M - The simplest approach to estimating a population value. Lets Look at an Example A recent survey asked high school seniors how many hours they spent on line each day. Find the point estimate of μ with the data below. 4 7.25 5 5.25 6.25 6.25 4.5 3 .5 4.25 What could we use to estimate μ? M or x Find both: x = 46.25 = 4.625 10 M = 4.75 Which one is better? Recall when it is best to use each one… Confidence Intervals(estimating μ) Things to Remember About the Distribution of x: 1) Has a normal distribution (by CLT) 2) Is an unbiased estimator of μ (x = μ) 3) If permission is granted: s = σ/√n Issues with Point Estimates: if we re – do the sample, will we get same stat? Confidence Intervals Def: the interval of reasonable values of the characteristic of interest Pattern for the formula: (what’s on AP test) statistic ± critical value(standard deviation of stat) For Estimating μ: x ± z*(σ/√n) Margin of Error Confidence Levels Def: the success rate of the method used to construct the interval. Ex: A 95% confidence interval = if we took lots of samples and found the mean over and over again, in the long run 95% of the resulting intervals would capture the true value of the parameter. If we go through the same process with the same sample size, σ, and z*, but different x, 95% of those intervals will contain μ. (CI applet) Calculating Confidence Intervals What is z*? A location on the normal curve that results in the needed confidence level. Ex: Use Table C! z* = 1.96 -z* z* 95% Calculating Confidence Intervals Let’s try another z*: What is z*? z* = 2.326 -z* z* 98% Critical Values z* is also called a critical value. Any ideas why? The area outside of the interval are called critical areas PANIC (no