Input Analysis - Bilkent #220;niversitesi End#252;stri M#252;hendisigi B#246;l#252;m#252;输入分析- Bilkent和# 220；niversitesi端与# 252；条并购# 252；hendisigi B # 246；L和# 252；并购# 252；.pptVIP

* Chapter 4 – Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs Structural modeling: what we’ve done so far Logical aspects – entities, resources, paths, etc. Quantitative modeling Numerical, distributional specifications Like structural modeling, need to observe system’s operation, take data if possible Chapter 4 – Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs Deterministic: nonrandom, fixed values Number of units of a resource Entity transfer time (?) Interarrival, processing times (?) Random (a.k.a. stochastic): model as a distribution, “draw” or “generate” values from to drive simulation Transfer, Interarrival, Processing times What distribution? What distributional parameters? Causes simulation output to be random, too Don’t just assume randomness away – validity Chapter 4 – Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs Generally hard, expensive, frustrating, boring System might not exist Data available on the wrong things – might have to change model according to what’s available Incomplete, “dirty” data Too much data (!) Sensitivity of outputs to uncertainty in inputs Match model detail to quality of data Cost – should be budgeted in project Capture variability in data – model validity Garbage In, Garbage Out (GIGO) Chapter 4 – Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs Use data “directly” in simulation Read actual observed values to drive the model inputs (interarrivals, service times, part types, …) Arena ReadWrite module ... see Model 10-2 All values will be “legal” and realistic But can never go outside your observed data May not have enough data for long or many runs Computationally slow (reading disk files) Or, fit probability distribution to data “Draw” or “generate” synthetic observations from this distribution to drive the model inputs We’ve done it this way so far Can go beyond observed data (good and bad) May not get a good “fit” to data – validity? Chapter 4 – Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs Assume: Have sample data: Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) list of obs