商用车轮胎市场需求预测的方法研究-工商管理专业论文.docxVIP

DEMAND FROECAS T ING METHOD FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TIRE MARKET ABSTRACT Along with the growth of the commercial vehicle market expanding, the scale of China’s tire market for commercial vehicle maintained a rapid pace of development. Commercial vehicles as an important model not only support the transportation and China’s economic development, but also make a positive and important contribution to driving-related industries. China’s macroeconomic development will undoubtedly boost the development of the commercial vehicle market and stimulate overall demand for commercial vehicle tires. However, at the mean time, due to the global economic integration and the unbalance of economic progress among China different regions, provinces and municipalities, commercial vehicles and its tire market demand become more and more difficult to predict. The wide range of product specifications and frequent changes of demand in after-sales replacement market lead to enormous uncertainty of sales forecasting, which causes considerable troubles in production planning, operations management, and product distribution. In turn, production cost is increased, which hurts the competitiveness of enterprises. Using S company’s influence in the tire industry and its internal data, this thesis develops scientific methods to analyze the OEM and after-sales replacement markets for commercial vehicle tires through marketing research and data analysis. I employed linear regression and exponential smoothing methods to link macroeconomic indices and the commercial vehicle volume such as production output and ownership of the commercial vehicle market. Then I established a market segmentation model for predicting the entire commercial vehicle tire market. Finally the forecasting uncertainty is reduced, which can be used to help improve efficiency and reduce costs in supply chain and manufacturing operations. KEY WORDS：Commercial vehicle, Tire Market, Linear Regression, Demand forecasting, Data mod