财政收入与gdp关系的实证分析——以扬州市邗江区为例-empirical analysis of the relationship between fiscal revenue and gdp - a case study of hanjiang district in yangzhou city.docxVIP

财政收入与 GDP 关系的实证分析 ——以扬州市邗江区为例 摘 要 合理的财政收入规模对经济发展起着非常重要的作用。经济决定财政，只 有加快经济发展，才能保证财政收入的快速增长，保持经济与财政的协调发展 至关重要。近年来，扬州市邗江区 GDP 和财政收入均大幅增长，但当前财政收 入占 GDP 的比重仍较低，财政收入水平与经济发展水平存在一定不对称性。针 对这种状况，本文选取扬州市邗江区 2001~2009 年的财税收入和 GDP 等经济发 展相关数据，采用了规范分 析与实证分析等方法，深入 分析邗江财政收入 与 GDP 协调关系。 从内容安排来看，本文首先介绍了本研究的背景和意义、提出本文的研究 框架；其次，运用计量经济学方法，深入研究了邗江财政收入和 GDP 增长的数 量关系；第三，结合邗江实践，深入分析了影响财政收入占 GDP 比重大小的各 种因素；第四，提出了相关对策建议。 本文主要结论为：(1)GDP 是邗江财政收入总量的决定性因素。2001~2009 年，财政收入与 GDP 具有较强的正相关关系，但财政收入占 GDP 比重相对较 低。财政收入增长速度总体上快于 GDP 增长，但从各年弹性系数来看波动较大。 (2)影响财政收入占 GDP 比重大小的因素主要包括：GDP 核算与税收核算的差 异、产业结构、企业规模大小、工业内部结构状况、工业经济效益、经济增长 方式、政策性因素和税收征管力度等。(3)建议通过采取下列措施提高邗江财政 收入占 GDP 的比重：转变经济增长方式、优化经济结构、提高经济效益、大力 发展楼宇 (总部 )经济、提高招商引资科学性、强化 税收征管、实行效益目标考 核制度。 关键词: 财政收入 GDP 宏观税负 An Empirical Analysis of the Relations between the Public Revenue and GDP- taking Hanjiang District for an example ABSTRACT A reasonable financial revenue scale plays a vital role to the economic development. The economic development decides the size of financial revenue. Only through speeding up the economic development, can we guarantee the fast growth of financial revenue. Maintaining the coordinated development of the economy and finance is very important. In recent years, the GDP and the revenue of the Hanjiang District, Yangzhou city have been growing substantially. But the proportion of current financial revenue to GDP is relatively at a low level. There exits dissymmetry between the levels of financial revenue and economic development. In view of this kind of condition, using the methods of normative and empirical analysis, this essay has discussed the coordination relations between the financial revenue and the GDP of Hanjiang. Firstly, this essay introduced the researching background, significance of this research, and the researching frame; secondly, the quantitative relations between the revenue and GDP growth were studied in depth; thirdly, taking Hanjiang for an examp