Biases in Environmental Decision Analysis — Multiple Criteria 在环境决策分析—多标准偏差.pptVIP

Can We Avoid Biases in Environmental Decision Analysis ? Raimo P. H?m?l?inen Helsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory raimo@hut.fi www.paijanne.hut.fi Structure of the presentation Background decision analysis interviews Goals of the study Case: Regulation of Lake P?ij?nne Splitting bias swapping of levels Description of the experiment Results of the experiment Conclusions ? Environmental decision analysis Parliamentary nuclear power decision (H?m?l?inen et. al) Decision analysis interviews (Marttunen H?m?l?inen) Spontaneous decision conferencing in nuclear emergency management (H?m?l?inen Sinkko) Cognitive biases Splitting bias attribute receives more weight if it is split origins: subjects give rank information only (P?yh?nen H?m?l?inen) Not observable in hierarchical weighting Decision analysis interviews Opinions of large groups of people traditionally collected through questionnaires Decision analysis interviews may provide a more reliable way to collect these opinions Idea: one value tree for all = common terminology emphasis on finding the viewpoints of different stakeholder groups interactive, computer supported Research interest Existence of biases in a real case Can biases can be avoided through training and proper instructing ? Identify what can go wrong in the Lake P?ij?nne case Compare the well trained university students’ and spontaneous stakeholders’ responses The Lake P?ij?nne case Regulation started 1964 Main aims were to improve hydroelectricity production and to reduce damages caused by flooding Environmental values increase in free time need for an improved regulation policy Splitting bias When an attribute is split, the weight it receives increases Swapping of levels Does the order of the levels affect the resulting weights? Important question in environmental decision analysis: stakeholder groups may vary regionally Not studied before Example of swapping of levels Earlier experiments on biases Structure of t