中国房地产：2013_年-良性循环的开始；上调目标价；强力买入万科A(摘要)-2012-12-04.ppt

2012 年 12 月 4 日 中国：房地产 Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Holding: Summary financials Profit model (Rmb mn) Total revenue Cost of goods sold SGA RD Other operating profit/(expense) EBITDA Depreciation amortization EBIT Interest income Interest expense 12/11 17,324.2 (10,597.8) (1,034.3) -- (65.7) 5,626.4 (1,354.3) 4,272.2 79.0 (385.0) 12/12E 20,885.4 (12,319.9) (2,329.3) -- (87.7) 6,148.5 (1,417.1) 4,731.4 94.9 (244.6) 12/13E 24,854.4 (14,942.6) (2,612.1) -- 0.0 7,299.7 (1,665.1) 5,634.5 113.1 (250.7) 12/14E 27,310.4 (16,456.5) (2,622.3) -- 0.0 8,231.5 (1,929.4) 6,302.2 132.7 (250.7) Balance sheet (Rmb mn) Cash equivalents Accounts receivable Inventory Other current assets Total current assets Net PPE Net intangibles Total investments Other long-term assets Total assets 12/11 6,107.5 775.4 31,737.6 1,543.5 40,164.0 14,585.9 4,759.1 2,466.0 786.8 62,761.8 12/12E 7,748.1 1,144.4 34,644.8 1,389.1 44,926.4 17,512.1 4,592.8 2,519.5 1,180.2 70,731.0 12/13E 8,749.9 1,361.9 35,317.7 1,250.2 46,679.7 20,984.1 4,426.5 2,519.5 1,770.4 76,380.2 12/14E 10,619.6 1,496.5 34,459.4 1,125.2 47,700.7 24,683.1 4,260.3 2,519.5 2,655.5 81,819.1 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 344.1 350.8 437.6 479.4 Others Pretax profits Income tax Minorities 13.0 4,323.3 (1,037.0) (109.1) 2.1 4,934.5 (1,145.9) (142.1) 0.0 5,934.4 (1,374.2) (230.0) 0.0 6,663.6 (1,546.1) (243.3) Accounts payable Short-term debt Other current liabilities Total current liabilities 13,787.9 6,609.2 4,347.9 24,744.9 15,188.9 7,161.2 6,206.5 28,556.6 17,194.3 7,161.2 5,660.7 30,016.1 18,936.3 7,161.2 4,707.7 30,805.1 Long-term debt 19,891.3 20,695.0 20,695.0 20,695.0 Net income pre-preferred dividends Preferred dividends Net income (pre-exceptionals) 3,177.2 0.0 3,177.2 3,646.5 0.0 3,646.5 4,330.2 0.0 4,330.2 4,