第五章 管理策之二决策偏向.pptVIP

Smart Leaders, Foolish Choices: Avoiding Decision Making Traps Lecturer: 姬定中 Department Of Business, NIT After this lecture you will be able to know Framing Availability Representativeness Anchoring Adjustment Overconfidence  Framing Tendency to make different decisions depending on how a problem is presented 边框效应（framing effect）是指由于问题表述的语境不同，对同一个问题的两种逻辑意义上相似的描述最终导致不同的决策判断的效应 How you frame it De Martino and his colleagues scanned the brains of 20 volunteers. At the same time, the researchers told the participants they received a sum of money and then repeatedly posed them one of two choices: Keep a chunk of money or gamble, or lose a chunk of money or gamble. As expected, those told they could keep money or gamble were generally leerier of risk. On the other hand, volunteers informed they could lose money or gamble often were more risk-seeking. Framing Effects Refers to how decision-makers view a problem from a win-loss perspective. The way a problem is framed often influences choices in irrational ways… Suppose you’ve been given $1000 and must choose between: A. Receive $500 more immediately B. Flip a coin and receive $1000 more if heads occurs or $0 more if tails occurs Framing Effects (cont) Now suppose you’ve been given $2000 and must choose between: A. Give back $500 immediately B. Flip a coin and give back $0 if heads occurs or give back $1000 if tails occurs 我们是稳定不变的吗？ 我们有时喜欢赌，有时又不喜欢赌。 有时比较谨慎，有时又比较冒险，愿意“赌大的”。 Framing (from Plous, 1993) Wording issues in questionnaires Do you get headaches frequently? (2.2/wk) Do you get headaches occasionally? (0.7/wk) Suggests that the way we frame problems or issues can have significant impact on the information we gather and on the decisions taken (Hart) Framing (from Plous, 1993) Overcoming framing effects: Evaluate the quality of your assumptions and existing frames (appropriate? realistic? how do they direct your attention?) Seek other opinions (e.g. people who continually disagree with you …) Temporari