在实现人民币国际化过程中可能面临挑战.docVIP

在实现人民币国际化过程中可能面临挑战 　　摘要：中国的官方货币（人民币）已经开始成为国际性的货币，但是在此过程中人民币的境外市场的发展可能对中国的金融市场提出挑战。银行和保险公司正在使用这些境外人民币创建境外外汇、货币和债券市场，因此银行间的资金流入也可能会提出新的政策挑战。最终，境外的银行将绕开国内银行而直接对中国的公司提供人民币信贷，这就可能使中国当局的政策性杠杆处于危险境地。 　　关键词：人民币 国际化 挑战 　　1. Introduce 　　A currency is internationalised when market participants ? residents and non-residents alike ? conveniently use it to trade, to invest, to borrow and to invoice in it outside the currency’s home country (“offshore”). The Chinese Renminbi has just begun the process of becoming an international currency. 　　As long as capital controls remain effective, Renminbi internationalization leaves the levers intact. Relaxed capital controls would put at risk bond market rationing, regulated deposit and lending rates, and quantitative credit guidance. Reserve requirements can be extended to inflows from offshore, but at a price. 　　The development of the Renminbi’s offshore market can be expected to pose challenges to China’s financial development. One of the consequences of this model is that hardly any credit is extended to Chinese borrowers across the mainland border. 　　Chinese firms are selling Renminbi bonds offshore and ready access to such funding could undermine the domestic rationing of bond market access and accelerate large Chinese firms’ exit from the banking system. Eventually, banks will forge strong links between the offshore Renminbi interbank market and its domestic counterpart, challenging monetary and credit control. In the longer term, firms in China will borrow from non-Chinese banks located outside the mainland, challenging not only monetary and credit control but also the predominance of Chinese-owned banks. 　　Non-Chinese and Chinese obligors selling Renminbi bonds offshore, the forging of strong interbank links between the Renminbi market on the mainland and off shore, and direct borrowing by Chinese firms from banks located outside the mainland. 　　2. Offshore bond market development 　　If it follows the precedent of offshore markets