中国货币供给增长率与通货膨胀率实证研究.docVIP

第1组数量经济学理论与方法（一）（计量经济学），8415字 中国货币供给增长率与通货膨胀率的实证研究 摘要 通货膨胀在经济理论和经济实践中都是一个重要的问题，原因是通货膨胀过高会给社会造成较高的成本。本文以货币数量论为理论基础，以1996 年第一季度至2010 年第一季度的广义货币供给增长率、居民消费价格指数同比增长率数据为事实依据研究货币供给增长率与通货膨胀的因果关系。本文采用实证分析与规范分析相结合、理论与实践相结合的方法，在理论分析和推导的基础上，构建计量模型及研究假说，利用国家统计数据并对数据加以处理，按照“理论研究—实证分析—政策建议—结论”的思路逐步展开，从而保证了研究结论的内在和外在有效性。在利用单位根检验对变量平稳性考察的基础上，应用协整方法对变量的长期均衡进行分析，应用因果检验方法对变量之间的因果关系进行经验性研究。结果表明，货币供给增长率与通货膨胀率互为因果关系，并结合中国国情给出治理通货膨胀相关政策选择。 关键词: 货币数量论；协整；因果关系 Abstract Inflation in economic theory and practice is an important question. Because inflation which remains uncomfortably high will give society higher costs. This paper based on the theory of monetary number theory studies the money supply growth and inflation causality with broad money supply growth rates and consumer price index data for facts from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2010.This paper using statistical data guarantees the internal and external validity of conclusion, adopting the method of empirical analysis and normative analysis, combining theory with practice,constructing measurement model and research hypotheses based on theory analysis and derivation, according to the train of theoretical study-empirical analysis-policy recommendations-conclusion.This paper based on the investigation of stability using unit root test analysises long-term equilibrium with the method of variable co-integration,the causality in empirical research with the method of Granger causality test. The conclusion is that the money supply growth and inflation are Granger causality.finally, this paper gives related policy options about inflation with Chinas national condition. Key words: Monetary number theory；co-integration；Granger-causality  目 录 1 引言.............................................................1 2 货币供给增长率与通货膨胀率的理论研究.............................1 2.1 货币供应量的层次............................