施工区路段短时交通流预测研究.docxVIP

施工区路段短时交通流预测研究 摘要 为了有效地解决随着我国的城市化水平大幅提高而出现的城市交通问题，我国许多城市开始了地铁工程的建设。由于城市地铁交通线路通常沿城市主干路布设，其工程施工需占用道路资源，施工区域呈带状分布，许多车辆不得不改线行驶或绕行，使地铁线施工所在的道路失去了其城市交通走廊的作用，对道路交通产生非常严重的负面影响。地铁施工期间地面交通组织是减少地铁施工对城市交通负面影响，保障地铁工程顺利完成的重要措施之一。 对地铁施工区交通特性的分析和短时交通流的预测，是实现有效的交通组织的关键环节。本文首先详细的分析了地铁施工区的路段特性、交通流特性以及地铁施工对路段交通主体的影响和对路段通行能力的影响，然后基于对常规灰色预测模型的学习分析，提出了为提高模型在地铁施工区路段的适应性和预测精度的基于历史数据预测残差修正的新预测模型的建模方法。最后以哈尔滨西大直街地铁施工封堵路段为例运用新建模方法进行短时交通流预测，得到预测结果的残差和相对误差都低于常规灰色模型，说明了新模型提高了对地铁施工区路段短时交通流预测的适应性和预测精度。 关键词：灰色模型；短时交通流：地铁施工；交通组织 Abstract Many cities in our country begin the subway construction in order to resolve the traffic problem caused by our countrys urbanized level largely enhances effectively. For it’s construction needs to take up the resources of the road, and the construct area are distributed as band, a lot of vehicles have to switch over to exercise gleam or makes a detour, the road that subway line locating lost its traffic corridor effect, the construction has many negative effects to the city traffic. The traffic relieving during the subway construction period is one of the most important measure to reduce the negative effects and ensure the successful construction of subway. The analysis of characteristics of subway construction zones and short-term traffic flow forecasting are key step for achieving effective traffic organization. At first, the paper makes a detailed analysis of the characteristics of sections, traffic flow and the effect of rude capacity in subway construction area. After that, the paper propose a new method of modeling based on the prediction’s error amend of history date in order to Improve the adaptation and prediction accuracy of model in the subway construction zones based on the study of traditional model..At last, the paper make use of the model by taking an example of West Big straight street in Harbin for short-term traffic flow prediction. And the error and relative error are both lower than the traditional gray model which prove that the model improve t