(随机抽样).pptVIP

Random sampling (随机抽样) Independent（独立性） Representative（代表性） The political system of the US The US Senate(参议院） Each state allows two senators So there are about 100 senators in 50 states. The House of representatives（众议院） The number of representatives from each state depends on its population California 56 New York 33 Texas 32 Delaware 3 Tennessee 12 Florida 25 Using random numbers to implement random sampling Sampling probability Sussex University has 1000 students. 200 of them are foreign students, others are American. What is the probability of randomly sampling a foreign student in one trial? The sampling size If you select 1 student from 1000, then the outcome of probability would be either 0% or 100%. If you select many, then the outcome would approach 20% The law of large numbers(大数定律) limP{|f/n –p|ε}=1 The law of large numbers is the foundation upon which such business enterprises as gambling casinos and insurance companies are built Sampling probability Sussex University has 1000 students. 200 of them are foreign students, others are American. What is the probability of getting 2 foreign student in two samples? {FF, FA, AA}{p2, 2pq, q2} p=P[F] = 200/1000 q=P[A] = 800/1000 p+q = 1 {FFF, FFA, FAA, AAA}{p3, 3p2q, 3pq2, q3} Probability distribution For samples of 1, p + q For samples of 2, (p +q)2=p2 + 2pq + q2 For samples of 3, (p +q)3=p3 + 3p2q + 3pq2 + q3 … For samples of n, (p +q)n = The coefficients of the expanded terms Pascal’s triangle: The binomial distribution(二项分布)Pn(k) =Cnk pk qn-k Characteristics of the binomial distribution There are only two possible outcomes on each trial, F or A The trials are independent The probability of F (for a foreign student) remains the same from trial to trial, p The binomial distribution(二项分布)Pn(k) =Cnk pk qn-k Basic probability rules Rule 1. Any probability P(A) is a number between 0 and 1, that is 0 ≤P(A) ≤1. Rule 2. The collection