alternativeapproachestovaluation(收购跟兼并-.pptVIP

* 16 * 17 * 18 * 19 * 20 * 21 * 22 * 23 * 24 * 2 * 3 * 4 * 5 * 6 * 7 * 8 * 9 * 10 * 11 * 12 * 13 * 14 * 15 * 16 * 17 * 18 MA-Guobo Huang * Chapter 10 - 8 For Chevron in 1983 without Gulf the value drivers were: Actual tax rate (T ) = 42.7% After-tax profitability rate (r) = 13.8% Investment opportunities rate (b) = 48.0% Growth rate in EBIT (g) = 6.6% Years of prospective supernormal growth (n) = 10 Marginal cost of capital (k) = 12.0% Initial EBIT (1983) (X0) = $3,106 million MA-Guobo Huang * Chapter 10 - 9 The indicated 1983 value of Chevron was $16.8 billion Deduct total interest-bearing debt of $2 billion The formula market value of equity was $14.8 billion The actual market value was $12 billion MA-Guobo Huang * Chapter 10 - 10 Spreadsheet method Develop a spreadsheet for the future 10 years DCF the free cash flows at a cost of capital of 12% We obtained a value of $7,082 million We obtained a value of $7,123 million using the formula method The spreadsheet method and formula method give the same results MA-Guobo Huang * Chapter 10 - 11 The Value of Gulf, 1983 Use the formula method for Gulf at the end of 1983 The value drivers for Gulf were: Actual tax rate (T ) = 50% After-tax profitability rate (r) = 0.7% Investment opportunities rate (b) = 53.2% Growth rate in EBIT (g) = 0.4% Years of prospective supernormal growth = 10 Marginal cost of capital (k) = 13.0% Initial EBIT (1983) (X0) = $2,990 million MA-Guobo Huang * Chapter 10 - 12 The formula value for G