chain(建构供应链模式).pptVIP

PART II Solutions Modeling the Supply Chain Modeling the Supply Chain(建構供應鏈模式) The examples in Chapter 4 show that even the simplest of systems can generate surprisingly complex behavior. How, then, are managers to understand such complex business systems as supply chains and manage them effectively? The answer, in a word, is modeling. The only way to understand complex systems is to construct simplified models of them, play with the models to see how they work, and then apply what you learn to the real-world system. You may not have thought about it this way, but you already do this with conceptual models all the time, even if the models are only in your mind. This chapter shows you how to use these mental models more effectively, and it introduces two more powerful kinds of models—mathematical and simulation models—that you can use as precision tools for prediction and control. You dont have to know how to build these more advanced models, but knowing what they are and when to use them is vital to managing a supply chain effectively. 第4章的例子顯示了部使最簡單的系統，也會產生令人意料不到的複雜行為。 那麼，經理人要如何瞭解供應鏈這麼複雜的商業系統，並且有效地管理它們 呢？簡言之，答案就是建模(modeling)。瞭解複雜系統的唯一方法是去建構它 們的簡單模式，操控這些模式看看它們運作的法則，然後將所學到的應用在 真實世界的系統。你或許從來沒有這麼想過，但事實上你卻一直在使用觀念 模式(conceptual models)思考真實世界的系統，即使這些模式只有在你的腦袋 裡。本章將教你如何更有效地使用這些心智模式(mental models)，並且介紹兩 種功能更強的模式──數學模式與模擬模式，可作為預測與控制的精確工 具。你不一定需要知道如何建構這些進階的模式，但知道有這些進階模式存 在，以及何時使用它們，對於有效管理供應鏈是非常重要的。 The Case for Models(模式之用處) Models are simplified representations A model is nothing more than a simplified representation of a real- world system. This representation can take a. wide variety of forms, including verbal explanations, whiteboard diagrams, mathematical equations, physical structures, and computer programs. All these models serve a common purpose: They take a system that may be hard to understand or dangerous to manipulate, and they render it in a form that is easier to understand and safer to play with. 模式是簡化的表達方式 模式(model)不過是一個真實系統的簡化表達方式。模式的表 達有很多種方式，包含言語解釋、白