供应链管理中的牛鞭效应探究.docxVIP

沈阳理工大学学士学位论文 摘 要 牛鞭效应是供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象，是供应链上的信息流从最终客户端向原始供应商传递时，信息出现了扭曲而逐级放大，导致了需求信息出现越来越大的波动。牛鞭效应导致供应链中巨大的损失:它误导生产计划、导致过多的库存投资、收益减少，并且降低了服务水平，导致无效运输等等。由于牛鞭效应是供应链本身的结构决定的固有特性，是无法消除的。因此最大限度地削弱牛鞭效应的影响成为提高整个供应链效率，实现供应链管理目标的关键。 论文首先采用了定性分析的方法对供应链管理中牛鞭效应的产生机理进行系统分析，然后在信息共享条件下运用回归分析法对具体案例进行分析，重点讨论订货提前期对牛鞭效应的影响，最后据此提出减轻的方法和措施。 关键词：牛鞭效应；供应链；回归分析；订货提前期  Abstract The bullwhip effect is a demand variability amplification phenomenon in the supply chain. When the information flow passes from the end-client to the original supplier in the supply chain, the information appears distorted and progressively enlarges, and leads to the demand information causes growing fluctuations. The bullwhip effect causes much loss?in?the?supply chain: it misleads?the production plan, leads to?excessive?inventory investment,?reduces earnings,?reduces the level of service, and causes invalid transport and so on. Because the inherent characteristics of?the structure?of?the?supply chain lead the bullwhip effect, so it cannot be eliminated. So?weaken?the?bullwhip as much as possible is the key of improving?the?efficiency?of?the entire supply chain, and achieving?the?goal?of?supply chain management. Firstly, the paper makes a systematic analysis of the mechanism?of?the?bullwhip effect?in?supply chain management by a method of qualitative analysis. Then?under conditions of the information sharing, it uses the regression?analysis?to?analyze?the?specific case, and focuses on the lead time’s influence to the bullwhip. At last the paper?proposes the methods and measures to weak?the?bullwhip. Keywords:?bullwhip effect; supply chain; regression analysis; lead time  目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc327696650 1 绪论 PAGEREF _Toc327696650 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc327696651 1.1 研究的背景和意义 PAGEREF _Toc327696651 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc327696652 1.2 国内外研究现状 PAGEREF _Toc327696652 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc327696653 1.3 论文的研究内容和结构 PAGEREF _Toc327696653 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc327696654 2 供应链管理和牛鞭效应介绍 PAGE