北京市商品住宅供求与价格关系的实证分析.docx

PAGE 北京市商品住宅供求与价格关系的实证分析 摘要 这几年北京商品住宅的房价涨幅不定，让人们对北京房地产的发展更是琢磨不透，为了把握好北京商品住宅的价格水平以及为投资者分析可以投资的北京房地产商品住宅的情况，并且研究的结果对北京商品住宅有非常重要的实践和理论意义。因此本文从北京市商品住宅供求的角度分别分析，将价格指数作为研究的对象，用理论还有真实的数据资料以及科学的计量方法来鉴定，北京市商品住宅的发展特点以及对未来发展的建议。 本文首先分析了北京商品住房基本情况 包括北京商品住房市场实证分析、中外商品住房价格对比，日常基于供给角度的商品住房价格因素包括中央与地方权益博弈、土地供应的时滞性及垄断性、通货膨胀推动、相关制度不完善分析基于需求角度的商品住房价格因素，最后提出对北京商品住房发展的建议包括完善住房保障制度、加强土地政策调整，改善住房供应结构、加强信贷监管，限制贷款额度、建立房产信息系统、改革利率决定机制，完善汇率形成机制等一系列对策。 关键词：北京 供求 价格 实证 Abstract: In recent years the rate of increase in housing prices in Beijing commercial housing, to let the people of Beijing real estate development is elusive, in order to grasp the good Beijing commercial housing price level and for investors to analyze investment Beijing merchandise residential real estate situation and the results of the study of Beijing commodity residential have very important practical and theoretical significance. The from the perspective of Beijing city residential commodity supply and demand respectively, the price index as the object of study, with the theory and real data and scientific measurement method to identify, Beijing commodity residential development characteristics and on the future development of the proposal. This paper first analyzes the basic situation of Beijing commercial housing empirical analysis including Beijing commercial housing market, the Chinese and foreign commercial housing price comparison, daily based on the perspective of supply of commercial housing price factors include central and local interests game, time lag of land supply and monopoly, push inflation, imperfect relevant system analysis based on the perspective of demand of commodity housing price factors, finally puts forward Suggestions to Beijing commercial housing development including perfecting housing security system, strengthening land policy adjustment, improve the housing supply structure, strengthen the supervision of the credit, limit loans, to set up the real estate information system, the reform o