《行为金融学入门》井泽教授lecture 1 rationality.pptVIP

From the view point of the Expected Utility Theory Behavioral Finance Outline 1-1. Rationality in Economic Theory 1-2. Rationality without Uncertainty: Homo Economics 2-1. Rationality under Uncertainty: Expected Utility Theory 2-2. Irrationality under Uncertainty 3-1. Axiomatic systems of the Expected Utility Theory 3-2. Experimental Tests of the Expected Utility Theory 4-1. Risk preference and Certainty Equivalent 4-2. How to Measure Risk Preference: BDM Method 5-1. Subjective Probability in the Expected Utility Theory 5-2. Elicitation of Subjective Probability 6-1. Portfolio Selection Theory 6-2. Portfolio Selection and Non-Expected Theory OUTLINE Are we rational as economists presume? Is your decision making different, under or without uncertainty? “Greed is good,” yelled Michael Douglas in the movie Wall Street (1987). But, are we really so greed, and selfish? Instruction of the game Responder Proposer Perfect strangers $5 is given to both The Ultimatum Game If you and the other subject are rational, you should give the minimum amount (say,1 cent), and the other should accept it. Gamblers fallacy Heads？ or Tails？ Now Let’s Play！ １００万円 １１０万円 ９０万円 １００万円 １２０万円 ８０万円 ７０万円 １３０万円 １１０万円 ９０万円 １００万円 １２０万円 １４０万円 ６０万円 ８０万円 １ ４ ６ ４ １ Do you understand the fairness? Random Walk “Fair” means “unpredictable for anyone”. The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2002 Daniel Kahneman Vernon L. Smith Lessons from the games Man cannot live by money alone. We have the sense of　fairness. We live in the mixture of altruism and self-interest. Cognitive ability of risk and uncertainty is bounded. We can be inconsistent in the perceprion of risk und uncertainty. superstructure Conventional view of economics Behavioral Approach AND We are not computers…. What is “rational”? Do you want the more money? Do you want only the more money? Rationality A axiom (system of presumption) must be consistent. Decision making must obey on the axiom. “Rationality does