illusionofenergyindependence(生油页岩能源独.pdf

U.S. Shale Plays Oil-Prone Shale Plays: The Illusion of Energy Independence Arthur E. Berman Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Halliburton Conference Theater October 19, 2012 Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Houston SIPES Continuing Education Seminar Slide 1 Shale Magical Thinking I know not any thing more pleasant, or more instructive, than to compare experience with expectation, or to register from time to time the difference between idea and reality. It is by this kind of observation that we grow daily less liable to be disappointed. --Samuel Johnson: Letter to Bennet Langton What few people realize: •While oil production has increased, the U.S. is not going to become energy independent. •Resources are not reserves, and reserves are not supply. •Shale oil wells have high decline rates and require substantial capital expenditure to keep production flat much less increasing. •Oil production from the Eagle Ford and Bakken shales will probably increase U.S. supply by 1-2 million barrels per day by 2020 depending on oil price. Labyrinth Consulting Services