印度保持旅游增长势头.pdf

UNWTO-PATA Forum 2009 India: Sustaining tourism growth ***** Sudhir Sahi UNDP-India sudhirsahi@ •No resource is infinite…not even sunlight •Sustainable tourism footprint…response to climate change World tourism…brand identities •Is the destination melting into the background? •Has the brand experience become the objective? •How would this impact the supply side? …the community? MSMEs? •Where does this place the demand side? …the visitor? Persuading visitors? Partnering suppliers? •Those with disposable income, wanting status - US$100k for guided trips up Mt Everest - Multiples of that for lunar trips •Energy imperatives - Large scale transport requires affordable fossil fuels - Fossil fuel prices spiral unpredictably - Response to climate change - Waste management •Can carbon be converted to hydrocarbons for energy …when…what cost? •Legal framework: pre-investment EIA… add cost of safeguards to project cost Safeguards: carrying capacity In the 1990s: •Low impact •Zero impact •Don’t travel Now - 1: •Limit consumption •Adapt •Innovate slow tourism… Now - 2: •Zero footprint…not just for carbon… but other uses…paper, energy… Reality: ecological footprint 1.6 vs 0.6 World tourism: impact of recession % year 7.0 Jan 2008 forecast 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Aug 2008 1.0 forecast 0.0 -1.0 Nov 2008 -2.0 Jan 2009 forecast forecast -3.0 -4.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: Oxford Economics ITB 2009 WTM 2009 Euromonitor I