基于生态足迹株洲市可持续发展研究.docVIP

基于生态足迹株洲市可持续发展研究 　　摘要：为定量评价株洲市可持续发展状态，应用生态足迹模型对株洲市2001～2013年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行实证分析，并利用灰色GM（1，1）模型对其发展趋势进行了预测。结果表明，株洲市人均生态足迹由2001年的1.394 6 hm2逐渐增加到2013年的2.487 5 hm2；同期人均可利用生态承载力由0.528 4 hm2逐渐下降到0.509 9 hm2，人均生态赤字由0.866 1 hm2逐渐增加到1.977 5 hm2。同时根据预测出的研究区域2016～2025年的人均生态足迹和人均可利用生态承载力，2025年研究区域人均生态赤字将增加到2.569 9 hm2，表明当前株洲市的生态环境处于中等不可持续状态，并呈现向强不可持续发展趋势。 　　关键词：生态足迹；生态承载力；可持续发展；株洲市 　　中图分类号：X171.1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）20-3955-05 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.20.040 　　Abstract： The ecological footprint is an important framework to analysis the regional sustainable development.In the present study， the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Zhuzhou City is calculated and analyzed from 2001 to 2013 by means of the ecological footprint model，as well as the developed trend of this city is predicted by the grey model. The results show that in 2001～2013，the ecological footprint of Zhuzhou per capita increased from 1.394 6 hm2 to 2.487 5 hm2， the ecological carrying capacity per capita gradually decreased from 0.528 4 hm2 to 0.509 9 hm2，while the ecological deficit per capita increased from 0.866 1 hm2 in 2001 to 1.977 5 hm2 in 2013. Likewise，according to the predicted ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity per capita of the study area from 2016 to 2025，the ecological deficit of the study area in 2025 will increase up to 2.569 9 hm2. These results conclude that the ecological environment in Zhuzhou City is located in the medium state with the unsustainable developed trend. Urgently calls on the local government to actively take measures to improve the ecological environment， in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development. 　　Key words： ecological footprint； ecological capacity； sustainable development； Zhuzhou City 　　可持续发展是既满足当代人的需求，又不对后代人满足其需求的能力构成危害的发展。可持续发展要求正确处理人口、资源、环境之间的关系，实现人与自然和谐相处，其强调的是环境承载的能力和资源的永续利用。20世纪90年代提出的生态足迹模型为环境可持续性的定量分析和研究开拓了新途径，生态足迹（Ecological footprint，EF）的概念首先由加拿大生态经济学家Rees[1-3]和Wackernagel[4，5]提出、完善