基于粗糙集和集对分析中国水资源承载力现状评价.docVIP

基于粗糙集和集对分析中国水资源承载力现状评价 　　摘要:水资源是经济社会发展的基础性资源,对其承载力进行评估可作为区域可持续发展战略制定的依据。针对水资源的自然、经济社会和生态环境等多重属性,选取了6类26项描述指标,通过粗糙集理论(RS)对指标进行约简,筛选出了产水模数、水资源开发利用率、万元GDP用水量、人口密度、河流水质Ⅰ~Ⅲ比例和生物丰度指数6个评价指标。采用层次分析和熵权法对指标进行赋权,采用集对分析(SPA)构建评价样本与评价标准的联系度,建立了水资源承载力评价RS-SPA模型,利用该模型对我国31个省级行政区的水资源承载力进行了评价,结果表明我国北方地区基本属于不可承载或准不可承载,南方地区基本属于可承载或良好可承载。 　　 　　关键词:水资源承载力;粗糙集;集对分析;全国 　　中图分类号:TV213文献标识码:A文章编号:1672-1683(2010)03-0071-05 　　Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on RS-SPA in china 　　DING Ai-zhonga,b??,CHEN De-shenga,b??,PAN Cheng-zhonga,b??,XU Xin-yia,b?? 　　(Beijing Normal University, a.College of Water Sciences, b.Engineering Research Center of Ground Water Pollution Control and Remediation, Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China) 　　Abstract: Water resources are fundamental both for the development of society and economy.The measurement of water resources carrying capacity is an important guidance to the sustainable development.Aiming to the multiple attributes of water resources, this paper selected 26 descriptive indicators of water resources carrying capacity,which can be roughly divided into 6 categories.According to the filtration used RS (Rough Set),then,6 key indicators was chose from these 26 descriptive indicators.AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and EW (Entropy Weight) were used in this paper to calculate the weight of indicators and SPA (Set Pair Analysis) was applied to constitute the relativity between sample and grade.Finally,a new assessment model of water resources carrying capacity named RS-SPA was established.This model has been used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in china.The results indicate that most regions in north are basically in a state of unloading or quasi-unloading, and in south are in a state of loading or sound loading. 　　Key words: water resources carrying capacity; Rough Set; Set Pair Analysis; nation 　　 　　0 引言 　　水资源承载力指在一定的水资源开发利用阶段,满足生态需水的可利用水量能够维系该地区人口、资源与环境有限发展目