重庆市住宅价格预测模型分析——基于重庆市主城区普通商品住宅价格实证预测分析-analysis of chongqings housing price forecasting model —— based on the empirical prediction analysis of ordinary commercial housing price in chongqings main urban area.docxVIP

Abst Abstract 万方数据 万方数据 Abstract China is at the time of the social and economic structure transformation. With the gradual progress of urbanization, the migration of rural to urban continues, the housing problem has become a big problem which is related to the peoples livelihood. However, as a sensitive factor affecting the Overall situation the real estate market prices naturally attracted much attention. To study Chongqing’s ordinary housing prices, you have to predict the prices. However, the premise of predicting ordinary housing prices is to study the prediction model of ordinary housing prices in order to build a predictive model for Chongqing’s ordinary housing prices forecasts, which have good prediction effect, with great practical value. Given the small sample size of the real estate market, the particularity of poor information, and with the development of multi-disciplinary integration, in recent years, some researchers began to use gray theory of cybernetics to study the quantitative analysis of real estate prices. The topic make the basic theory of real estate prices as the theoretical basis, and the current development of the real estate market in Chongqing as a reality to analyze of the main factors of housing prices in Chongqing, and the primary component analysis, that the data processing technology about the transformation and restructuring of pure data structure based on a priori assumptions with no data distribution, is adopted to analyze and process the main factors on the price in order to provide theoretical support for the determination of the parameter in gray model. In follow-up studies, which making the ordinary commercial housing price of Chongqing in history as the gray sequence, the conventional GM model has been built to get the forecast sequence of the ordinary commercial housing price of Chongqing. At the same time, combine the prior studys principal components selected and multivariate statistical method, using principal component