管理经济学课件chapter07.pptVIP

Direct Methods of Demand Estimation Consumer interviews Range from stopping shoppers to speak with them to administering detailed questionnaires Potential problems Selection of a representative sample, which is a sample (usually random) having characteristics that accurately reflect the population as a whole Response bias, which is the difference between responses given by an individual to a hypothetical question and the action the individual takes when the situation actually occurs Inability of the respondent to answer accurately Direct Methods of Demand Estimation Market studies experiments Market studies attempt to hold everything constant during the study except the price of the good Lab experiments use volunteers to simulate actual buying conditions Field experiments observe actual behavior of consumers 例7.5.2 专栏7-3 Empirical Demand Functions In linear form b = ?Q/?P c = ?Q/?M d = ?Q/?PR Expected signs of coefficients b is expected to be negative c is positive for normal goods; negative for inferior goods d is positive for substitutes; negative for complements Empirical Demand Functions Estimated elasticities of demand are computed as Nonlinear Empirical Demand Specification When demand is specified in log-linear form, the demand function can be written as 例：比萨饼的需求估计 * Chapter 7 需求预测 Demand Forecasting 预测模型 定性模型 统计模型 时间序列模型 计量经济模型 7.1 定性预测技术(Qualitative Forecasting Techniques) 定性预测法把客观数据和主观判断结合在一起。这是一种综合方法，包含有预测者的许多主观推断。分析人员需要确定所用指标，然后在他们所处的市场或公司中加以阐释。 统计预测法(Statistical Forecasting) 统计预测法比定性预测更为细致、明确，可供人反复使用。 统计预测法 时间序列模型 计量经济模型 7.2销售量和价格的时间序列预测 (Time-series Forecasts of Sales and Price) 时间序列模型 线性趋势预测法 季节性(周期性)变化 时间序列预测法应用某一变量的历史数据建立模型预测其将来值，时间序列模型设定一个数学公式表示预测过程，并用统计技术拟合历史数据到数学模型中。 线性趋势预测法 (Linear Trend Forecasting) 最简单的时间序列预测法是线性趋势预测法，假定销售量或价格随时间变化呈线性增长或降低。然后对所给数据进行回归分析，算出最恰当的回归曲线，以计算未来的预测值。 数学模型： 估计趋势线: (1) 且是显著的，那么销售量的变化趋势是上升的； (2) 且显著，则销售量呈下降趋势； (3) 不显著，假设 ，销售量持平，即销售量和时间没有关系，销售量的