基于小波分析的径流特性和影响因素多尺度分析-北京大学.PDF

北京大学学报 ( 自然科学版), 第 50 卷 , 第 3 期 , 2014 年 5 月 Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, Vol. 50, No. 3 (May 2014) doi: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2014.056 基于小波分析的径流特性和影响因素多尺度分析 ——以通天河为例 刘笑彤 蔡运龙† 北京大学城市与环境学院 , 北京 100871; † 通信作者 , E-mail: caiyl@urban.pku.edu.cn 摘要 基于通天河直门达水文站的径流资料 , 对其进行特性分析和预测研究。用小波分析的方法 , 通过对径 流数据小波系数的实部、模平方和方差等参数的计算分析, 得知通天河年径流时间序列存在 27 年和 16 年左 右的周期变化, 它们主导着通天河年径流长期变化特性。之后, 对太阳黑子活动与该流域径流特性进行小波 互相关分析, 得知太阳活动和径流在 8~15 年的尺度上存在强相关, 在 40 年的尺度上存在弱相关。 关键词 小波分析 ; 通天河 ; 太阳黑子 ; 互相关 中图分类号 P343 Research of Runoff’s Feature and Impact Factors in Multiple Dimensions Based on Wavelet Analysis: A Case Study on Tongtian River LIU Xiaotong, CAI Yunlong† College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871; † Corresponding author, E-mail: caiyl@urban.pku.edu.cn Abstract The Tongtian River’s features were analyzed based on the runoff data from the Zhimendate hydrological station. By using the wavelet analysis and analyzing the parameters such as the real part, modular squaring and variance of the wavelet coefficients, the result shows that the runoff of Tongtian River has the main period of 27 years and 16 years, which decides the features of Tongtian River’s runoff in the long term. On the basis of the cross correlation between the runoff and the black spots, it draws a conclusion that solar activity and the river have the strong correlation at the 815 years scale and have the weak correlation at the 40 years. Key words wavelet analysis; Tongtian River; black spot