Global-Economic-Perspective--April-17，-2007.pdf

Global Economic Perspective - April 17, 2007 全球经济展望-2007 年4 月17 日 Sluggish data, but some bright spots Surveys of manufacturing and services activity in the U.S. have been seen as relatively disappointing in recent weeks. In addition, problems in the market for sub prime mortgages have come more clearly into focus, with more than 40 specialized lenders having gone out of business by the end of March according to Bloomberg data. Financial market volatility and rising oil prices have also been hurting consumer confidence, while stagnation in housing prices (and decline in some areas) is threatening the wealth effect that has helped boost consumer spending. 寻找数据中的亮点 近期公布的美国制造业和服务业数据比较让人失望。此外,来自Bloomberg 公布的数据显示， 3 月份已有超过40家专业放贷机构离开次级抵押市场。金融市场的动荡和油价上涨抵消了消费 者的信心，而房地产的疲软(部分地区甚至开始下降)正在威胁财富效应,而后者有助于刺激消 费。 Yet all is not doom and gloom. In particular, the employment picture remains encouraging. The downturn in housing-related industries might have been expected to prove a major drag on employment statistics. Instead, U.S. employers increased payrolls by 180,000 in March, well ahead of expectations, leading to a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, its lowest rate in six years. There were also upward revisions in the non-farm payroll figures for January and February. 不过,这一切并非危困。 特别地，就业形势依然令人鼓舞。房屋相关产业的疲软肯定对就业数 据产生影响。 另一方面，3 月平均支付工资增长了180,000，远远超过预期，失业率也是6年 来的最低水平，仅为4.4%。1至2 月非农业薪资也将向上调整。 Along with strong employment figures, the U.S. economy continues to work at high capacity. Industrial capacity utilization reached 82.0% in February, a full percentage point higher than its average in 1972-2006 according to the Federal Reserve, suggesting that a slowing economy will not necessarily sink into recession. Yes, the Institute for Supply Managements (ISM) index of non-manufacturing industries in March slowed to its lowest rate in four years (52.4), but any figure above 50 still indicates expansion. The ISMs manufacturing index fell to 50.9 in March f