国外专业机构对2009年经济灾难预测-疯了.doc

国外专业机构对2009年经济灾难预测 疯了，全疯了！ 原文：　　　　Our 2009 Predictions　　　　Roger Wiegand Dec 22 2008 1:23PM　　　　 　　　　We think we now have enough data from both the fundamentals and technicals to make some serious forecasts and predictions for 2009. While 2008 was a nasty year when lots of things imploded, they are far from being repaired. Treasury Secretary Paulson told us this week there are no more surprises, which tells me we haven’t even discovered but a small portion of this monster derivative mess. His ripping-off of the taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion is only a warm-up. However, the larger question for traders and investors is what could happen next and when.　　　　In the following report we take the key global economic points and suggest the outcome for 2009. -Traderrog 　　　　The most important news for 2008 was the destruction of the big global banks’ net worth and their badly wounded ability to conduct normal business and make market-moving loans. Ben Hank’s bailout only helped the bad-boy banks reliquify themselves to remain somewhat solvent and stay in business. They are doing nothing to extend credit to any business enhancing western or global economies. The 2009 result will be no significant banker lending, taking more bailout money and sweeping additional bad loans of all stripes under the banker’s rug and hiding the rest in back rooms.　　　　The largest surprise in our view was the massive disaster at insurance giant AIG. Despite numerous injections of bailout billions, AIG remains in very serious trouble hanging on by their proverbial fingernails. The 2009 result will be a surprise crash and failure of AIG frightening the world at large causing ripples of failures throughout western and Asian nations unable to conduct business without mandatory insurance policies. Most folks have no comprehension as to the monster fallout this will create. It is in our view literally immeasurable, and this is why Paulson handed them so much money.　　　　Our new president