中英：宏观经济运行的框架(HowtheEconomicMachineWorks-RayDalio).pdf

How the Economic Machine Works A Template for Understanding What is Happening Now Ray Dalio Created October 31, 2008 | Updated March, 2012 一个理解经济机器如何运作以及相关反映的模型 Ray Dalio 2008.10.31 创建 /2012.03 更新 The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine, yet it is not well understood. I wrote this paper to describe how I believe it works. My description is not the same as conventional economists ’ descriptions so you should decide for yourself whether or not what I ’m saying makes sense. I will start with the simple things and build up, so please bear with me. You will be able to understand and assess my description if we patiently go through it. 经济就像一台机器。在最基础的层面上更是一台相对简单的机器，尽管它并不是那么好理解。我写这篇论 文是用以论述我理解中的经济运作的方式。我的描述和传统经济学家有所不同，所以你可以自己决定是否 要相信我的观点。我会从简单的事情开始讲，然后逐渐加码，所以请多加容忍。我相信如果你耐心的看完 这篇论文，你能很好的理解和评估我的观点。 How the Economic Machine Works: “A Transactions-Based Approach ” 经济机器如何运转： “一种基于交易的行为 ” An economy is simply the sum of the transactions that make it up. A transaction is a simple thing. Because there are a lot of them, the economy looks more complex than it really is. If instead of looking at it from the top down, we look at it from the transaction up, it is much easier to understand. 一个经济体简单来说就是交易的总和，一笔交易也是一件简单的事情。因为交易的数量很多，所以经济看 起来比较复杂。如果我们不自上往下看经济，而是从交易角度往上看，会更容易理解。 A transaction consists of the buyer giving money (or credit) to a seller and the seller giving a good, a service or a financial asset to the buyer in exchange. A market consists of all the buyers and sellers making exchanges for the same things –e.g., the wheat market consists of different people making different transactions for different reasons over time. An