房地产开发企业信用评级模型构建与分析-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

I 摘 要 房地产行业是我国的支柱产业，作为房地产行业组成单位的房地产开发企业，在推 动经济增长、带动其他产业发展方面做出了突出贡献。然而资金短缺、融资难等问题一 直制约着我国房地产开发企业的发展，成为房地产开发企业难以突破的瓶颈。虽然经过 几十年的发展，我国资本市场正逐渐走向成熟。但是由于房地产开发企业资产负债率高、 资金周转慢等特点决定其需要大量的资金，因此金融机构的贷款发放成为我国大多数房 地产开发企业的资金来源。而碍于紧缩的财政政策及房地产开发企业的还款信用风险， 金融机构更加重视对房地产开发企业贷款的审批。金融机构对于是否发放贷款的决定， 取决于贷款企业的信用评级。目前无论是我国金融机构的内部评级，还是专业机构的外 部评级都没有统一的对房地产开发企业的信用评级指标体系和评级模型。 本文在总结前人研究成果的基础上，确定影响房地产开发企业信用评级的因素，分 别建立定量指标与定性指标的信用评级指标体系。并基于可拓物元理论，建立房地产开 发企业的信用评级模型。力求科学准确的反映房地产开发企业的信用评级，并进行实证 分析。 论文主要的创新点如下： （1）运用可拓物元法对房地产开发企业信用评级进行分析，使信用等级与评级指 标数据可靠的结合在一起。信用模型计算过程中，以 2012 年房地产开发企业综合实力 前 20 强企业的财务数据中位数为基础，确定可拓模型的经典域，使房地产开发企业信 用评级更加切合房地产市场的实际情况。 （2）运用熵权法确定房地产开发企业信用评级定量指标的权重。熵权法对权重的 确定完全取决于定量指标的数据，避免了权重确定的主观性，使权重的确定更加合理。 （3）对房地产开发企业信用评级的定性指标与定量指标进行分别评级，使二者的 评级过程互不影响。最后将二者的评级结果相结合得到最终的信用评级。这样避免了定 量指标与定性指标的交叉影响，使整个评级过程简单明了。 关键词：房地产开发企业、信用评级、模型 Abstract Real estate industry is the pillar type industry. As the composition of the real estate industry enterprises in promoting economic growth, real estate development enterprise drives the development of other industries and has made outstanding contributions. However, The shortage of funds and the financing difficulties have restricted the development of our countrys real estate development enterprise. It is difficult to break through the bottleneck. Although our capital market has experienced decades of development and it is going mature. But because of real estate development enterprises’ high asset-liability ratio and slow capital turnover characteristics determine its big capital demand, so the financial institutions’ loans become the real estate development enterprise funding source. And because of the tight fiscal policy and real estate development enterprises larger payments credit risk gradually increase the difficulty of the real estate development enterprises’ loans, which hindered the development of real estate development enterprises. In this paper, on the basis of summarizing predecessors’ research results, determing the influencing factors of