来宝硬商品部董总经理.pptVIP

通往成功的战略结构调整 过去 未来 从不稳定的供应商到主要力量 World coal consumption has grown at 8-10% p.a. over the past decade Growth expected to moderate to 5-6% p.a. in the next 2 decades Emerging demand for off spec tightens spread between ScoTa high ash Capex has been steadily on the rise – 2000-2008 – to fill the structural deficit in early 2000s Mining capex is expected to peak at 2012 -Mining inflation - increased thermal coal’s floor price from $20/t to 80/t through 2003-2012. (16% annualised per year) Structural shift - Australia, for instance, has shifted further to the right end of the cost curve (70% of its mines fall in the 3-4th quartile) Slowdown in capex suggests the need to evaluate feasibility of individual expansion project Increasing competition - Future trading margins will likely remain low – Adjust – examples – adapt to changing market conditions; tailor blends to meet prevailing demand Future pie: gas - from 1.5% to 4.4% Liquids – from 7% to 11% Coal as a % of energy mix – by 2030, 74.5% (still dominant), vs 76% at present Growth – World energy consumption demand to grow 50% further in the next 2.5 decades; 70% of which is led by non-OECD Asia China’s will maintain 2% p.a. growth rate in next 2 decades, outpacing its peers. Transition from swing supplier to regular importer Domestic infrastructural development to have greater impact – expansion in local infrastructure (rail) unlocks low-cost coal production from inland – lower CFR costs in demand centers Liberalization – Seaborne market to track Chinese domestic SD/prices more closely, China would become ‘market clearer of the marginal ton’ Examples of deals Yanzhou Coal’s $294m investment in Westfarmers Premier Coal Limited CIC’s $718m stake in GCL’s Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. Economics – future CFR prices Ref: $80 CFR China, bss 5500NAR, ex America /2012-05-29/industries1_coal-mines-chinese-coal-china-coal /article.php?id=7627 Average CV goes down, therefore implies an increase in tonnage o