基于层次分析模型的北京雷电灾害风险评价-自然灾害学报.PDFVIP

19 1 Vo.l 19 No. 1 2010 2 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Feb. 2010 : 1004- 4574(2010) 01- 0104- 06 1 1 2 扈海波, 王迎春, 熊亚军 ( 1. , 100089; 2. , 100089) : 10, , , GDP, , 10 , , :; ;; : P429 : A AHP m odelbased risk assessm en t of lightn ing in Beij ing 1 1 2 HU Haibo , WANG Y ingchun, X IONG Yajun ( 1. Beijing Institute ofU rbanM eteorology, hinaM eteorology Adm inistration, Beijing 100089, hina; 2. BeijingM eteorologicalObservatory, Beijing 100089, hina) Abs tract: The application research on risk assessment of lightning disaster in Beijingwasbased on the data collect ed in recent 10 years, and the adm inistrative regions ( counties and districts) were taken as the basic units for as sessm ent. The historical disaster frequency (HDF), population density and GDP per capita were introduced as main assessm ent indices and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was adopted to m easure theweighing. The as sessm ent result is approxmi ately consistentw ith the real lightning frequency trend. It demonstrates that lightning in Beijing is relevant to the vulnerability of the underlaying surface and the distribution of hazardaffected body, be sides the natural lightning distribution. Rationality and correctness of the assessm entm ethod are both well proved by the research. K ey w ord s: analytic hierarchy process (AHP) mode;l urban meteorological disaster; risk assessmen;t lightning disaster [ 1] , , , , , : 2008- 05- 21; : 2009- 06- 23 : ( MATG2007M14) ( Z0006279040191) : ( 1970- ), , ,