华北地区PM2.5浓度估算模型建立及相关时空变化剖析.docVIP

华北地区PM2.5浓度估算模型建立及相关时空变化剖析 　　摘 要：PM2.5浓度对空气的质量有著重要影响，对PM2.5浓度及其时空变化规律的研究，对由于雾霾引起的空气污染的治理有着重要意义。本文基于华北地区59个城市2014年10月-2015年3月、2015年10月-2016年3月、2016年10月-2017年3月的实时PM2.5浓度数据与MODIS气溶胶数据，利用空间插值、相关分析、城郊缓冲差异分析和时间序列分析等方法研究华北地区主要城市PM2.5浓度及时空变化的规律。结果表明：在空间分布上以华北地区的中东部或中西部为中心向四周扩散，空间分布特征明显。同时小型、中型和大型城市PM2.5浓度城郊差异各不相同，小型城市郊区PM2.5浓度大于市区，中型城市普遍为郊区PM2.5浓度小于市区，大型城市北京市郊区PM2.5浓度远大于市区。在时间分布上高发与12月和1月，各市的月插值PM2.5浓度与MODIS月融合PM2.5浓度因月份的不同其相关性各异，同时PM2.5站点统计数据以12月份为轴，研究时间段内PM2.5浓度分布近似于正态分布。 　　关键词：PM2.5浓度；MODIS气溶胶数据；时空变化；估算模型；正态分布 　　Abstract：The concentration of PM2.5 has a significant impact on the quality of the air. It has a great significance of the research on the variation of PM2.5 concentration and its temporal， spatial distribution and the control of air pollution caused by smog and haze. This article is based on real-time PM2.5 concentration data and MODIS aerosol data from 59 cities in North of China from 2014 to 2015， 2015 to 2016， 2016 to 2017， from October to December of the previous year and January to March of next year， spatial interpolation， correlation analysis， suburban buffer difference analysis and time series analysis were used to study the variation of PM2.5 concentration and time-space in major cities of North China. The results show： in terms of spatial distribution， the central and eastern parts or the central and western parts of North China as the center and spread to four weeks， spatial distribution is obvious. At the same time， suburban differences in PM2.5 concentrations vary among small， medium and large cities. The concentration of PM2.5 in the suburbs of small cities is greater than that in the urban areas， and the concentration of PM2.5 in the suburbs of the medium-sized cities is generally less than that in the urban areas. The concentrations of PM2.5 in the suburbs of Beijing is much higher than those in the urban areas. In the time distribution， it was high in December and January. The correlation between PM2.5 concentration interpolation data and r