毕业论文-计量经济学论文——社会保障和就业支出的影响因素分析-（精）.docVIP

社会保障和就业支出的计量分析 PAGE3 / NUMPAGES25 西南财经大学 Southwestern University of Finance and Economics 学期课程论文 课程名称： 计量经济学 论文题目：社会保障和就业支出影响因素分析 学生姓名 专 业： 2011级国际商务 教学班级： 周 二 第 1、2、3节 【摘要】本文以1991-2010年统计年鉴上的宏观经济数据为样本，对社会保障和就业支出进行影响因素分析。本文先定性分析社会保障和就业支出的影响因素，选取符合经济意义的四个解释变量——财政支出，GDP指数，居民储蓄和城镇失业率，再利用Eviews软件建立时间序列模型，进行一系列实证检验和分析，得出最终的回归模型并利用该模型进行预测。研究结果表明，财政支出和GDP平减指数对社会保障和就业支出有显著影响。基于以上分析，我们认为应该根据我国国民收入和经济增长速度来调整财政支出，把社会保障和就业支出保持在适度水平。 【关键词】 社会保障和就业支出 时间序列数据 财政支出 GDP平减指数 Abstract: This paper analyzes the influence factors of expenditure on social securement and employment with the data between 1991 and 2010 in China statisitcal yearbook. Having done qualitative analysis on the influence factors of expenditure on social securement and employment, the paper chooses four independent variables complying with economic implications. They are fiscal expenditure, GDP deflator, household savings and urban unemployment rate. Then the paper conducts a series of empirical tests and analysis by the means of Eviews, through which process we get the final regression model and use it to make expectations. According to our research results, fiscal expenditure and GDP deflator have significant influences on the expenditure on social securement and employment. Based on the findings, we suggest that fiscal expenditure should be adjusted according to the speed of national income and economic development. Only in this way can the expenditure on social securement and employment maintains the level modest. Keywords: social security expenditure; time-series data; fiscal expenditure; GDP deflator 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc389515025 一、 研究背景 PAGEREF _Toc389515025 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc389515026 1.1 研究目的 PAGEREF _Toc389515026 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc389515027 1.2 文献综述 PAGEREF _Toc389515027 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc389