大宗货物国际航运市场的运营模式研究-交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docx

PAGE PAGE IV STUDY ON THE OPERATION MODES OF THE BULK CARGO INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING MARKET ABSTRACT The thesis firstly gives a global study of the innovation of the professional ship management companies. A detailed analysis has been made on the crew management, charting, ship maintenance and the consultancy about the select of the best ships, the registration of ships and finance methods and so on. Then studying the different business models used during the shipping cycle. The tough period, shipping company will operate when freight is higher than or equal to the voyage cost but the rising period, freight rate will reach out of rational range. According to the history data some law has been recognized to guide the correct operation method. After established the reasonable model thus guide the proper investment in ship demolition shipbuilding and ship chartering. The important factors of dry-bulk shipping market were taken out and analyzed quantitatively to reveal the inherent relation among them. The econometric model was established with Eviews. Under some assumptions, some significant variables such as supply of the market， world trade volume, cost of the operation and the price of oil which affected the freight rate were analyzed quantitatively. To get the reasonable and accurate forecasting model, two shipping routes of each of four important ship types：Capsize, Panamax, Suez, VLCC were studied by the method of econometrics. Unconstrained vector autoregression models and error correction model of the Tubarao-beilun route with new factor have been set up with Eviews. According to some economic theories, the results have been analyzed and compared with each other. In the end the most concise and reasonable forecasting model has been found. KEY WORDS: Bulk transportation，Ship management，Voyage cost， VAR，ECM - - PAGE 1 - 目 录 1 绪论 - 1 - 1.1 选题背景及意义 - 1 - 1.2 文献综述 - 2 - 1.2.1 船舶管理研究 - 2 - 1.2.2 航运成本研究 - 3 - 1.2.3 航运市场模型研究 - 4 - 1.3 研究目的及内容 - 10