基于情景分析的存量规划方法研究―以波士顿.pdfVIP

中国科技论文在线 基于情景分析的存量规划方法研究―以波 士顿“大都市区愿景”计划为例# 戴锏，孙澄** 5 （哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院，哈尔滨，150001 ） 摘要：当前，我国城市建设正面临着质量提升、集约更新的关键转型期，存量规划在规划体 系中占有越来越重要的位置，因此有必要对存量规划的体系与方法进行深入理论探索。情 景分析作为一种科学而形象的场景预测方法可以良好地适应存量规划的产权关系复杂、多 10 元主体参与、零碎空间整合的特点，并早已应用于以美国为代表的西方国家的存量规划体 系当中。本文以波士顿“大都市区愿景”计划为例，分析情景分析方法的引用过程与结果， 并在此基础上提出情景分析应用存量规划的基本原则，即需要把握整体框架、处理核心问 题以及整合多元技术与方法，以期为存量规划体系的发展提出合理建议。 关键词：城乡规划；情景分析；存量规划；大都市愿景 15 中图分类号：TU984 The Inventory Planning Methods Based on Scenario Analysis-A Case Study of Boston “Metro Future” Program DAI Jian, SUN Cheng 20 (School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150001) Abstract: At present, following the key transition period is faced by Chinas urban construction including quality improvement and intensive update, the inventory planning occupies a more and more important position in the planning system, so it is necessary to explore the new methods for improving the inventory planning system. Scenario Analysis can well adapt the inventory planning 25 features, which are complex property relationship, more involved participations and fragmentary spatial integration. Meantime, as a scientific image prediction method, Scenario Analysis had already applied to the Western countries inventory planning system for many years. The paper takes the Boston Metropolitan Future program as the example to analyze the scenario introduction process and present the basic principle of applying the Scenario Analysis, including 30 seizing the overall framework, addressing the core issues and integrating the multi-technologies, for putting forward some reasonabl