一类复杂系统下元胞自动机传染病模型 的控制跟预测.pdfVIP

Operations Research and Fuzziology 运筹与模糊学, 2017, 7(4), 91-103 Published Online November 2017 in Hans. /journal/orf /10.12677/orf.2017.74011 Control and Prediction of Cellular Automata Epidemic Model under a Complex System Lijuan Zhang Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Technology, China Earthquake Administration, Sanhe Hebei th th th Received: Sep. 26 , 2017; accepted: Oct. 6 , 2017; published: Oct. 16 , 2017 Abstract Based on the complex network, we put out a CA model with medical intervention. By increasing the mobility of individual autonomy to construct dynamic social network, we simulate the trans- mission process of infectious disease, in the two-dimensional regular network, and depict the dif- ferent time of the outbreak of the disease and flow characteristic. The propagation characteristic of different infectious diseases, such as the involuting propagation, eruption, can be reflected in the simulation. The simulation results show that: Medical intervention played a certain effect on the transmission of infectious diseases, and also gave a quantification of a medical intervention, which provided reference and basis to take reasonable prevention and intervention methods. The model can reflect the dynamic social network and individual adaptability behavior on disease transmission effect, and maintain consistency with the actual situation. Keywords Cellular Automata, Infectious Disease, Social Network, Syphilis 一类复杂系统下元胞自动机传染病模型 的控制和预测 张丽娟 中国地震局，防灾科技学院，河北 三河 收稿日期：2017年9月26 日；录用日期：2017年10月6 日；发布日期：2017年10月16 日 文章引用: 张丽娟. 一类复杂系统下元胞自动机传染病模型的控制和预测[J]. 运筹与模糊学, 2017, 7(4): 91-103. DOI: 10.12677/orf.2017.7401