电力上市企业财务预警实证研究-企业管理专业论文.docx

摘 摘 要 摘 要 早在 1985 年国家就开始筹备电力体制改革，自 2002 年 2 月国务院颁布《电力体 制改革方案》、2003 年 7 月又颁布《电价改革方案》之后，一个“厂网分开，竞价上 网”的新型电力市场逐步形成。在竞争、开放的新型电力市场环境下，电力企业的财 务健康状况受到越来越多的关注，财务风险不容忽视，进行财务危机预警研究显得尤 为重要。 本文以我国电力行业为研究背景，以 2009 年底之前上市的 55 家电力企业为研究 对象，首先对财务预警相关学术文献进行回顾，阐述了财务危机预警研究的基础理论， 然后分析了新时期造成电力企业财务危机的风险因素，并从电力企业财务预警的应用 角度出发，选用 BP 神经网络模型进行财务危机预警研究。本文将 2009、2010 年的财 务状况与 2007、2008 年的财务数据作为配对样本建立 BP 神经网络预警模型，训练出 符合误差标准的神经网络，用训练好的神经网络对样本企业 2011 年的财务状况进行 预测，同时选择 Fisher 判别模型和 Logistic 回归模型的预测结果与之进行比较。通 过实证分析，验证了 BP 神经网络在电力企业财务预警分析中的可行性，并较其他预 警模型更适用于电力企业的财务预警研究，同时也提出了电力企业防范财务风险的一 些对策建议。 与以往的研究成果相比，本文合理放宽了财务危机范畴，以避免由于危机样本过 少而高估模型的准确性；其次在建立财务预警指标体系时适当选取非财务指标，以求 体系更加合理，所含信息更加丰富。 关键词：财务预警；电力企业；BP 神经网络模型；财务预警模型 I Ab Abstract I II Abstract As early as 1985, our Country began prepare for the power system reform. The State Council promulgated the electricity reform program since February 2002.The reform program of electricity price enacted in July 2003. Since then, a new electricity market is gradually formed. The new electricity market is competitive and opening. According to this environment, the financial health of electricity power enterprise has been threatened more from the financial risk that can not be ignored. So the financial early warning is particularly important. Based on China’s power electricity industry, this dissertation reviewed academic literature on the financial early warning, and expounded the theory of corporate financial early warning research. After that, it analysised the risk factors which cause the financial crisis in the electricity power enterprises. Starting from the financial early warning application for power electricity company, this dissertation conduct the financial crisis early warning research based on BP neural network model which choices 55 listed electricity power enterprises before 2009 on samples. First,it make the financial position of 2009 and 2010 a pair with the financial data of 2007 and 2008 to establish the early warning model of BP neural netw