合肥市城市需水量预测研究-市政工程专业论文.docxVIP

The Research for Forecasting Urban Water Requirements in Hefei Abstract With the rising population and the fast growing economy,many cities are lack of w，ater， the con虹adiction of water supply and demand aggravate．The research for forecasting urban water requirements has become all important issue of water resources planning and management．As the capital of Anhui province，under the background of promoting the growth of central cities，hence Herei has carded out a development strategy m the name ot “1 4 1”．In order to assure the sustainable utilization of water resources of Hefei and the sustainable development of national economy, forecasting urban water demand scientifically and immediately Can guide the water resource development and utilization， which iS of theoretical and practical importance． Urban water requirements include domestic water demand，industrial water demand and u】南an eco．enviroIl】[Ilental water requirements(UEEWR)．The research on UEEWR is a popular and difficult problem of water demand prediction．Economic development status， weather and hydrology and yearly water supply were surveyed， and then warer consumption in Hefei Was analyzed．On that basis，prediction models of three water requirements were setup respectively with reference to current literatures，planning year was predicted as well．Different models are used for the prediction of water utilization per capita．after analyzing model fitting errors，BP nervous network methods were chosen and comprehensive domestic water demand was forecast according to the population in each planning year．With the industrial product as the prediction parameter,GM(1，1)model was selected through analyzing model．fitting errors，then I-refei’s industrial water demand was predicted on the basis of water demand of per 1 0 thousand yuan output·In accordance with its theory,UEEWR includes urban greenbelt system and urban rivers and lakes system· Considering plant irrigation and growth,evaporation and leakage，oil water