基于马尔柯夫模型的县域土地利用结构变化及趋势预测.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2011,27(6):451-454 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 基于马尔柯夫模型的县域土地利用结构变化及趋势预测 ——以河北省辛集市为例 于宗海，许月明，吴 婧，吴 黎 （河北农业大学商学院，河北保定071000） 摘 要：本研究以探索县域土地利用结构变化发展规律，探讨解决耕地保护和建设用地需求增长的矛盾 为目的，以马尔柯夫转移矩阵为基础，对辛集市土地利用结构变化趋势进行预测。预测结果显示，在当 前发展趋势下，辛集市耕地面积持续减少，建设用地总量将不断增加，耕地保护压力越来越大。建设用 地蔓延过快，耕地占用速度增快将成为土地管理工作中亟待解决的问题。针对这种状况，必须采取相应 措施，控制建设用地增长速度，提高建设用地集约利用水平，严格限制耕地占用，最终实现保护耕地的目 的。 关键词：土地利用结构；马尔柯夫模型；趋势预测 中图分类号：F301.2 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2010-3598 TheStudyonCountyVariationofLandUseStructureandTrendPredictionBasedonMarkovModel ——TakingXinjiCityinHebeiProvinceasanExample Yu Zonghai, Xu Yueming,Wu Jing, Wu Li (CollegeofBusiness,AgriculturalUniversityofHebei, Baoding Hebei 071001) Abstract: This study explored the development of county land use, the purpose was to resolve the contradiction between land protection and growing demand of land for construction. The research based on Markov transition matrix, predicts the change trend of land use structure of Xinji. The results showed that with the current development trend, cultivated land would continue to decrease, and construction land would increase, the pressure on cultivated land protection would increase more and more. Construction land spread too fast and cultivated land occupancy rate increase quickly will be a serious problem in land management. Aiming at this condition, people must take appropriate measures to control the growth rate of construction land, improve the level of intensive use of construction land, strictly limit cultivated land occupied, and finally realize the purpose of protecting cultivated land. Keywords:land use structure; Markov model; trend prediction