交通规划-通模式分割.pptVIP

Hierarchical Choice Structure All Trips Modal Split Mode 1 Mode 2 Mode 3 All Trips Primary Split Mode 1 Secondary Split Composite Mode Mode 2 Mode 3 Overcome the IIA Problem of Multinomial Logit – Alternatives are correlated (e.g., red bus and blue bus) Transportation Planning Nested Logit Model Arunotayanun, K., 2010. Taste heterogeneity and market segmentation in freight shippers’ mode choice behaviour. Transportation Research Part E (in press). Level of service for freight modal choice: Monetary cost Time cost Reliability Flexibility Quality Cargo type and value Transportation Planning The Application of Discrete Choice Analysis Example Suppose the dis-utility of the customers demanding the package delivery service between a specific OD pair is captured using service fare and time cost where parameter is called value-of-time and follows the following cumulative distribution For a certain commodity (e.g., weight below 100g), the total demand is exogenously given, Q. Transportation Planning The Application of Logit Model Depicting the suppliers in the market Service fare Service time Transportation Planning 快递公司 The Application of Logit Model Discussions (1) Which supplier will survive in this market? Why? (2) How does the suppliers act to attract more demand? (3) How to calculate the market share for a certain supplier? (4) How to capture individual customer’s perceived error? Transportation Planning The Application of Logit Model Service fare Service time (1) Which supplier will survive in this market? Why? Transportation Planning The Application of Logit Model (2) How does the suppliers act to attract more demand? Service fare Service time Transportation Planning The Application of Logit Model Service fare Service time (3) How to calculate the market share for a certain supplier? Transportation Planning The Application of Logit Model Service fare Service time (4) How to capture individual customer’s perceived error? Mixed logit model Transportation Planning