中南半岛贸易潜力及其影响因素基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析.doc

中南半岛贸易潜力及其影响因素 于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析 昆明理工大学管理与经济学院 屮国一屮南半岛经济走廊建设，是推进“一带一路”倡议的战略节点和关键纽 带之一。本文使用时变随机前沿引力模型研宂中国对中南半岛国家的贸易潜力， 并采用一步法分析影响贸易潸力的主耍因素。结果表明，由于存在贸易阻力，中 国对中南半岛出口效率不断降低，贸易阻力随时间变化而增加，使得出口潜力 增加，未来出U潜力较大。中南半岛国家应完善相关合作机制，降低关税及非关 税壁垒，改善运输、交通基础设施，±符加金融自由度。屮国则应进一步优化产业 结构，提高技术水平，从而提升出口优势，有效释放贸易潜力。 关键词： 中国;中南半岛;贸易潜力;吋变随机前沿;贸易非效率; 文淑惠：敁明理工人学管理与经济学院； 张听(通讯 )：昆明理工大学管理与经济学院650093电子信 箱：zx827264532@163. com。 基金：国家自然科学基金项目“产品内分工下GMS地区制造业持续嵌入全球生产 网络的升级演化路径研究” Chinas Trade Potential and Its Influencing Factors in Indo-China Peninsula:An Empirical Analysis Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model WEN Shuhui ZHANG Xin Abstract： The construction of China - Indo-China Peninsula Economic Corridor, is one of the strategic nodes and key links to promote the development of “The Belt and Road Initiative” ? Tn this paper，the time varying stochastic frontier gravity model is used to study the trade potential of the Indo-China Peninsula and one-step method is used to study the main influencing factors of trade potential. The results show that, due to the presence of trade barriers, the efficiency of China’s exports to the Tndo-China Peninsula constantly decline, trade resistance increases over time, and therefore export potential increases, future export potential is very abundant. Indo-China Peninsula should improve relevant cooperation mechanisms, reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers, improve transportation and infrastructure, and increase financial freedom. China should further optimize its industrial structure and improve its technological level to enhance export advantages and effectively release trade potential. Keyword： China; Tndo-China Peninsula; Trade Potential; Time-varying Stochastic Frontier; Trade Inefficiency; 引言 中国一中南半岛经济走廊是中国与“一带一路”沿线国家规划建设的六大经济 走廊之一，随着中国一东盟自由贸易区的发展，中国与中南半岛国家的经济联 系曰益密切。 作为一衣带水的友好邻邦，屮国一屮南半岛经济走廊的发展潜力十分巨大。2015 年中国对中南半岛出口贸易额为1632. 95亿美元，占中国一东盟自贸区贸易规 模的61%。随着“一带一路”倡议的推进，通关便利化、合作机制制度化、政策 沟通多层化等相关因素能否显著影响中国对中南半岛各国的出U水平?贸易潜力 冇多大?该经济走廊建设是否能够对沿线国家与地区共同发展产生巨