参考点依赖的偏好.ppt

参考点依赖的偏好 ——现有模型的升级版 小组成员：花磊 李治波 苏元林 分析步骤 一：模型产生的背景 二：模型概况 三：模型的分析结构 四：结论 模型产生的背景 参考依赖和损失厌恶理论在经济学领 域有重要的地位已经被广泛的接受，并且学者们已经将其应用在很多经济情形下。然而，现有的模型在解释实验数据或者应用在特定的体系上十分合适的，但不是系统的与经济学理论一体化。如果严格按照现有模型而不附加新的假设条件的话，这些模型在某些应用中会产生有害的或者无力的预期（predictions）。 第二部分 the basic framework 模型分析结构 第三部分 a person’s reference point is her recent beliefs about future outcomes 模型分析结构 第四部分 consumer demand. Equilibrium Shopping Explore some of the implications of their model for market behavior of consumers How a consumer’s valuation is endogenously determined by market conditions and her own anticipated behavior? assumption Suppose there are two dimensions of choice: shoes and money, with The weight a consumer attaches to gain-loss utility Coefficient of loss aversion There aspects We first consider whether she will buy a single pair of shoes at price p The consumer is uncertain about the price she will buy A more comprehensive analysis of consumer’s behavior as a function of distribution of prices she is facing There pertinent ranges of the market price Expecting to buy the shoes utility from buying utility from buying Thus she will buy the shoes if Expecting not to buy them Thus she will buy them if There pertinent ranges of the market price If consumers expects not to buy with probability thus, there is no difference between buying and not buying if Self-fulfilling Get the shoes: a loss if not to buy them and a gain for the money she saves Being more sensitive to losses: to buy Being less sensitive to losses: not to buy Uncertain about the price Her utility from buying in high-price state would be Her utility from not buying is By the definition of the expressions imply that the consumer prefers not to buy when the price is high Comparison effect Once there is a possibility of acquiring the shoes at a cheaper price ,the consumer would experience a loss