关于地区经济发展水平的综合评价方法.docVIP

PAGE PAGE I 关于地区经济发展水平的综合评价方法 摘 要 本文以多元统计分析中主成分分析的方法为基础，对我国16个省份经济发展水平的7个主要指标进行分析评价，为了处理不确定环境下的综合评价问题，进一步明确各项指标的权重系数，提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗仿真思想的随机模拟综合评价方法, 将点赋值的序关系法推广至区间赋值的情形。基于随机模拟的思想, 依据经典的综合评价过程, 模拟反映被评价对象之间优劣关系的优胜度矩阵，在此基础上, 给出各被评价对象之间的最佳排序。通过实证分析，得到该种方法比主成分分析更为有效。 关键词：主成分分析，随机模拟，综合评价 Abstract The paper is based on the principal component analysis which is a kind of the multivariate statistics analysis methods. It aims at studying and comparing with the 16 provinces’ economic development level with the seven major indicators. But for solving the uncertain problem ,we want to make sure The weight of each indicator coefficient further, so a comprehensive evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation which is therefore presented, where the dot assignment can be extended to the interval assignment. Based on the stochastic simulation and according to the classical comprehensive evaluation process, the superiority matrix reflecting the relation between the superiority and inferiority of the object s being evaluated is simulated. Then, the optimal ranking of all the objects to be evaluated is given. Finally, using the case analysis, we draw a conclusion that stochastic simulation is more efficient. Key Words：principal component analysis, stochastic simulation, comprehensive evaluation 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413656 摘 要 PAGEREF _Toc357413656 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413657 Abstract PAGEREF _Toc357413657 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413658 第1节 问题背景 PAGEREF _Toc357413658 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413659 第2节 主成分分析 PAGEREF _Toc357413659 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413660 第3节 综合评价的相关理论及随机模拟的实现 PAGEREF _Toc357413660 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413661 3.1 基本概念与方法原理 PAGEREF _Toc357413661 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413662 3.2 随机模拟的软件实现步骤 PAGEREF _Toc357413662 \h 4 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413663 3.3 综合评价值的确定 PAGEREF _Toc357413663 \h 5 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413664 第4节 实证分析与研究 PAGEREF _Toc357413664 \h 6 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357413665 4.1 数据来源 PAGEREF _