投资讲义67.pptVIP

Case Study: MerckCompany 1. Objectives 2. Background 3. Approach 4. Solutions 5. Discussions 1. Objectives Learn how to work as a financial analyst Apply your knowledge in solving real issues Link financial analysis technique to strategic decision framework Work together with a team Improve communication skill 2. Background Financial analysis from investor’s prospective Medium and long term analysis focus on industrial structure and market competition Intrinsic value of Merck stock Sensitivity testing Overall valuation and recommendation 3. Approach Competitive strategy: Porter’s model ROE valuation: DuPont Valuation: DDM(DCF), single and Multiple stage 4. Solutions to the issues 1) Current issues for Merck’s growth: Price vs. volume? Managed cares has growing power Population Patients are more active Government policy Key for growth: volume 4. Solutions to the issues 2) Competitive Structure 4. Solutions to the issues 3) Competitive Strategies Cost leadership? Differentiation? Focus? 4. Solutions to the issues 4) ROE performance (see table 1) high ROE (over 42%) operating margin improves all the time assets turnover lowered recently controlled debt structure major indicators better than industry average(also see Table A-8) Trend will continue: stable growth, strong earnings, but cautious about turnover and sensitivity to policy 4. Solutions to the issues 5) Intrinsic Value Data: k= 0.1424, D0 = 1.0 growth with scenarios 4. Solutions to the issues Intrinsic value: 4. Solutions to the issues 0.19 0.171 0.14 0.10 0.12 $66.98 61.97 54.45 45.85 0.10 37.48 34.74 30.64 25.94 0.08 26.89 24.97 22.09 18.79 4. Solutions to the issues 6) Intrinsic Value for the mostly likely scenario: 4. Solutions to the issues 7) Sensitivity analysis: changing discount rate By the way, why discount rate changes? (for the most likely case P5 = $92.5) 0.1324 0.1424 0.1524 0.19 $55.49 53.20 51.02 0.17 55.21 52.93 50.76 0.14 54.78 52.51 50.35 0.10 54.26 52.01 4