基于ann-cvar模型的住宅开发投资风险评价研究管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 - - PAGE IV - - - III - Abstract The process of real estate investment real estate investment are from the generation of intent to real estate for sale, and the entire process of recovery of funds. This is a dynamic process and can be divided into investment decision-making stage, the preliminary work phase, the development and construction stage, the sales stage, at any stage of the hidden risks. Investment in real estate development is a high-society activities, and are highly vulnerable to external economic, political and other environmental impact. In order to effectively and accurately evaluate the risk it is necessary to establish a systematic index system and using appropriate and effective evaluation methods. In view of the problem, which is the market of residential development of China currently turbulent, and the investment risk of is too large, by understanding the risk characteristics of residential investment, the BP neural network and CVaR model of risk assessment methods are used in residential development investment risk assessment study, for developers in the residential development, risk assessment and risk awareness on the issue of the provision of new ways of thinking and evaluation tools. In this study, firmly grasp the characteristics of residential development investment and residential development investment risk characteristics, through the deep analysis the two closely linked the characteristics, recognized that Many factors affect the investment risk, complex, After studying the residential development investment risk assessment and found several common methods of old, a single approach has been difficult to do under the current socio-economic environment risk assessment required. BP neural network is the most commonly used and extremely advantageous properties of a means to deal with information, it in essence an implementation from input to output mapping function, and