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大家论坛四六级 /forum-58-1.html
1
We can begin our discussion of ―population as global issue‖ with what most persons mean when they discuss ―the population
problem‖: too many people on earth and a too rapid increase in the number added each year. The facts are not in dispute, It was
quite right to employ the analogy that likened demographic growth to ―a long, thin powder fuse that burns steadily and haltingly
until it finally reaches the charge and explodes.‖
To understand the current situation, which is characterized by rapid increases in population, it is necessary to understand the
history of population trends. Rapid growth is a comparatively recent phenomenon. Looking back at the 8,000 years of
demographic history, we find that populations have been virtually stable or growing very slightly for most of human history.
For most of our ancestors, life was hard, often nasty, and very short. There was high fertility in most places, but this was
usually balanced by high mortality. For most of human history, it was seldom the case that one in ten persons would live past
forty, while infancy and childhood were especially risky periods. Often, societies were in clear danger of extinction because
death rates could exceed their birthrates. Thus, the population problem throughout most of history was how to prevent
extinction of the human race.
This pattern is important to notice. Not only does it put the current problems of demographic growth into a historical
perspective, but it suggests that the cause of rapid increase in population in recent years is not a sudden enthusiasm for more
children, but an improvement in the conditions that traditionally have caused high mortality.
Demographic history can be divided into two major periods: a time of long, slow growth which extended from about 8,000
BC.till approximately AD. 1650. In the first period of some 9600 years, the population increased from some 8 mil
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