细网格数值模式产品在水文气象服务中的应用.PDF

2 0 1 7 细网格数值模式产品在水文气象服务中的应用 1 2 3 4 1 1 1 1 尹恒 杜良敏 胡永光 尹欣 杜兴无 夏金 周勇 文强 （1 湖北省十堰市气象局，十堰 442000；2 武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074； 3 汉江集团信息中心，丹江口 442700；4 湖北省神农架林区气象局，神农架 442400） 摘要：利用T639、GER和JMA细网格数值预报模式降水产品和汉江上游水文降水资料，应用统计方法建立气象数值预报 因子与水文面雨量对应关系，进而得到汉江上游面雨量客观预报模型。结果表明，该方法较客观地反映了流域内降水尤 其是致洪暴雨的分布情况，为丹江口水库调蓄调度、防汛抗旱提供科学参考量，是水文与气象信息耦合度量面雨量的有 益尝试。 关键词：汉江，数值预报，细网格，面雨量，预报 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2017.01.022 Application of Fine-Mesh Grid Numerical Model LSP Products in Hydrometeorological Service 1 2 3 4 1 1 1 1 Yin Heng , Du Liangmin , Hu Yongguang , Yin Xin , Du Xingwu , Xia Jin , Zhou Yong , Wen Qiang (1 Shiyan Meteorological Bureau of Hubei Province, Shiyan 442000 2 Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074 ; ; 3 Hanjiang Group Information Center Danjiangkou 442700 4 Shennongjia Meteorological Burea of Hubei Province, , ; Shennongjia 442400) Abstract: In this article, we establish a statistical forecast model by using the T639, GER and JMA predicted rainfall products at grids as meteorological factors and the upstream hydrological precipitation data in Hanjiang River basin as the predictor, The test results show that the proposed method may reflect the distribution of the precipitation in the basin objectively, particularly for heavy rains. It may provide a scientific reference for flood control and drought relief at Danjiangkou reservoir storage scheduling, and the technique may be beneficial for similar issues. Keywo